Right after the 2024 hurricane season ended, the National Hurricane Center got to work analyzing their forecast, the position forecast, the intensity forecast, and how well they forecast rapidly intensifying storms. Here's what they found after looking back at all the storms we had during the 2024 season.
First, the position forecast: going back to 1990, the numbers are spread far apart, meaning the accuracy wasn't good. But as you work towards 2024, the numbers and the graph come together, indicating the forecasts are becoming more accurate.
WATCH: Analyzing the National Hurricane Center's forecast accuracy
In fact, in 2024, the Hurricane Center has never been more accurate in all its forecasts, from the 24-hour to the five-day forecast. Last year was an excellent year for forecasting the position of the storms.
That cannot be said, though, for the intensity. While the intensity forecasts overall are getting better and the five-day intensity forecast has been improving more than any other, in 2024, all of the forecasts ticked up.
So what does this mean? The National Hurricane Center missed the intensity forecast a little bit more than in the previous years, and a lot of this has to do with the fact that so many storms intensified rapidly.
The Hurricane Center has discovered that they have a bias, and it tends to underforecast a rapidly intensifying storm. Going back to 2010, they were underforecasting the actual maximum sustained winds by 25 knots, almost 30 mph.
From 2015 to 2019, it got a little better, with almost 20 miles per hour under forecast bias. From 2020 to 2024, it still wasn't the best, but started to trend in the right direction, about 15 or 16 miles per hour or knot under forecast in the intensity.
We saw that with Milton, which eventually intensified to a powerful Category 5 storm with winds of 180 MPH. These are at least trending in the right direction, meaning that hopefully the Hurricane Center's 2025 forecast will be even more accurate.
WATCH Our Stormwatch 2025 Special below
Hurricane season is officially here, and experts say now is the time to hurricane-prep your home and yard. From flying branches to toppling trees, yard debris can quickly turn dangerous when a storm rolls in.