An area of low pressure is now approaching the east coast of Florida. It'll come onshore this morning somewhere between Titusville and Daytona Beach.
The low will move over Florida today. While it's on land, it will not develop. It will, however, bring the chance of flooding from Orlando west through The Villages over to the west coast of Florida around Citrus and Hernando Counties. The heaviest rains will fall just to the south of the track of the low-pressure pressure.
The system will emerge over the NE Gulf this evening and continue moving west. As it moves west, it's likely to get better organized and strengthen as it moves west.
Most of the global models keep this a tropical depression or, at most, a weak tropical storm. A couple of models, including the latest run of our in-house model, have this storm organizing a bit more, potentially becoming a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon and continuing to strengthen as it heads toward southern Louisiana.
There is a potential, Dexter, the next name on the list, could be a moderate to strong tropical storm as it moves closer to southern Louisiana Thursday or Friday morning. The only way it gets this intense is if the system tracks more south, keeping it over water longer and farther away from land.
All this model data is relatively new, as the NHC just placed the low-pressure center yesterday. Getting additional model updates today and seeing how they track will help us see how this storm is trending.
I'll keep you updated.
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