The NHC is tracking Tropical Storm Dexter this morning. The storm is more than 400 miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and continues to move away from the United States. It's not a concern.
There are two areas to watch in the Atlantic for later this week.
The first is the yellow blob off the coast of the Carolinas. Models indicate a broad low-pressure pressure may form here later in the week or next weekend. None of the models do much with this and keep it rather weak. This low will be in an area of weak steering currents, too, so where it goes is still a big question. Some of the models drift it back to the coast as a rainmaker, while others turn it more northeast and away from the coast.
Of more interest is a tropical wave that is about to move off the west coast of Africa. This wave is strong, and most of the models do develop this system as it moves west over the Atlantic.
No surprise, being as this is still on land, and nothing has happened with it, the models are all over the place with where this will go. The EURO models (both regular and AI) favor turning the system north over the open Atlantic and keeping it away from the United States.
The GFS, on the other hand, is farther south with the track. Interestingly, it also develops a stronger system. This is interesting because stronger systems are usually pulled north more. So the intensity and track forecasts don't seem to make much sense together.
Plenty of time to watch this. There will likely be another strong wave after this one for next week. This will be the case now through early October as we enter what is traditionally the busiest part of hurricane season.
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