TAMPA, Fla. — Historically, NOAA forecasters say August through October is when about 90% of all tropical storm activity takes place in the Atlantic. As we're now in that peak period, forecasters are predicting above-normal activity.
On Thursday, forecasters said conditions now favor above-normal activity, an increase from their prediction in May of near-normal activity.
The new prediction includes 14-21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes. The prediction includes the five named storms we've already had so far this season, which included one hurricane.
HURRICANE RESOURCES
Forecasters said the range predictions are made with a 70% confidence. Forecasters attribute the high confidence to conditions such as record-warm sea surface temperatures, the ongoing El Nino event, below-normal wind shear forecast, trade winds and above-normal West African Monsoon.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
Click here to read NOAA's full press release on Thursday's update prediction.