Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University released a third forecast for this year's hurricane season, which predicts more storms than before.
In May, CSU forecasters predicted slightly below-average activity. Now, they say we could see above-average activity in the Atlantic basin.
The May forecasters predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Now forecasters are predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Major Hurricanes are Category 3 and above
Category 1: 74 - 95mph winds
Category 2: 96 - 110 mph winds
Category 3: 111-129 mph winds
Category 4: 130-156 mph winds
Category 5: 157 mph winds or higher
ABC Action News Meteorologist Greg Dee said the higher numbers reflect warmer than normal Atlantic water temperatures. Last month the Atlantic recorded the hottest temperature ever, and it's not even the peak of the season. These warm temperatures will likely overcome any negative impacts from an El Nino that are currently located off the South American coast.
During an El Nino, water temperatures in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Ecuador and Peru are warmer than normal. This typically causes strong upper-level winds over the Atlantic Ocean, leading to fewer storms. These upper-level winds may not be strong enough to counteract the extremely warm Atlantic Ocean waters currently present, leading to an active normal season.
Though there are likely multiple reasons for the warmer Atlantic water temperatures, one seems to be a reduction in the amount of Saharan Dust that has been observed over the eastern Atlantic. 2023 has seen the lowest levels of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic on recent record.
HURRICANE RESOURCES
CSU will issue a forecast update on August 3.
Currently, we have no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic, though we have already had tropical storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy so far this season, none of which impacted Florida.
Read the full outlook here.