The University of South Florida men's basketball team drew a record home crowd Sunday to watch the 19-5 Bulls take out FAU with a 90-86 win. The victory kept the Bulls atop the American Athletic Conference and on the right track toward some real March Madness.
Still, the road ahead is filled with potholes, and USF has a lot of work to do before making any plans for March.
The Bulls are all alone in first place in the AAC, but Charlotte is one game behind, and FAU and SMU are just two games behind in the standings.
Looking at South Florida's schedule, the team has two key games against SMU next Sunday and another on March 2 against Charlotte. Wins in both of those games could be enough to carry the Bulls to the AAC regular-season title.
A win against both would also improve the Bulls' record against Quad 2 schools to 5-3 on the season. The NCAA Selection Committee looks at a team's record and how they did against different levels of competition or quads.
Quad 1 is the top level, and Quad 4 is the lowest level. Currently, USF has one Quad 1 win and is 15-2 against Quads 3 and 4. But those two losses are considered bad losses coming against Quad 4 (losses to Central Michigan and Maine early in the season).
A pair of Quad 2 wins against SMU and Charlotte would help put those Quad 4 losses far in the rear-view mirror. If USF runs the table in their next five games, it would improve the team's record to 24-5 and keep them undefeated against Quad 3 teams and have winning records against all other quads.
And those quad victories carry quite a bit of weight in the NCAA's NET rankings, which currently ranks USF at 92nd in the country. NET rankings include factors like winning percentage, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses, to name just a few elements.
The easiest path for USF to get to the NCAA Tournament will be to win the AAC Conference Championship tournament, scheduled to start March 13 in Fort Worth, Texas.
That would protect the Bulls if they stumble down the stretch of the regular season and get them into the NCAA Tournament, where anything can and does happen.
Regardless of if the Bulls make the NCAA Tournament, the team has posted its first winning season since 2011-2012, and with this being the first season for coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, hope for future success is growing for Bulls faithful everywhere.
