Lakeland, Tampa top list for most overvalued housing markets

TAMPA, Fla. — Lakeland and Tampa rank first and second when it comes to Florida's most overvalued housing markets, according to a study from FAU and FIU.

The study looked at housing markets across the country and found that Florida and Ohio top the nation's most overvalued markets.

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FAU’s Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., and FIU’s Eli Beracha, Ph.D., rank the most overvalued housing markets of America’s 100 largest metros monthly. According to their study, Lakeland and Tampa are both currently at more than 40% above historic home pricing.

“If you’re buying a home in these metros across Florida, Ohio and other areas, it’s imperative that you know you’re buying close to the peak of the market,” said Johnson, an economist for FAU Executive Education within the College of Business. “The danger is that prices will soon level off or even decline, and you’ll be stuck in that home for a significant amount of time before you can sell it at a profit that makes financial sense.”

According to the study, Lakeland is currently the most overvalued housing market in the state. The study said buyers are paying 42.54% more for homes than they should be. Tampa follows in the second, with buyers paying 41.46% more.

Florida rankings:

1. Lakeland
2. Tampa
3. Fort Myers
4. Melbourne
5. Daytona Beach
6. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton
7. Orlando
8. Jacksonville
9. Miami

U.S. rankings:

1. Boise City, Idaho
2. Austin, Texas
3. Ogden, Utah
4. Phoenix, Arizona
5. Provo, Utah
6. Las Vegas, Nevada
7. Spokane, Washington
8. Atlanta, Georgia
9. Salt Lake City, Utah
10. Detroit, Michigan
11. Charlotte, North Carolina
12. Lakeland, Florida
13. Colorado Springs, Colorado
14. Tampa, Florida
15. Memphis, Tennessee

Professors use open-source housing price indices (HPIs) to determine the degree of overpricing or underpricing.

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