US job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than initially estimated, according to new data released Wednesday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark review of employment data suggests that there were 818,000 fewer jobs in March of this year than were initially reported.
Every year, the BLS conducts a revision to the data from its monthly survey of businesses’ payrolls, then benchmarks the March employment level to those measured by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.
The preliminary data marks the largest downward revision since 2009 and shows that the labor market wasn’t quite as red hot as initially thought. However, job growth was still historically strong.
When spread through the prior year, the average monthly job gain from April 2023 through March 2024 was 173,500 versus nearly 242,000, an analysis of BLS data shows.
“It is important for markets to remember that these are not job losses, it is just that the job count was never that high,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds in a note Wednesday. “The economy apparently did not need those phantom ‘lost’ workers, because robust real consumer expenditures powered very strong [economic] growth in the second half of last year.”
The downward adjustments were limited to the private sector, with nearly half in the professional and business services industry (revised down by 358,000, or 1.6%.) Other sectors showing large negative swings included the information industry (down 68,000, or 2.3%), leisure and hospitality (down 150,000, or 0.9%) and manufacturing (down 115,000, or -0.9%).
The estimates released by the Labor Department on Wednesday — after an uncharacteristic delay of more than half an hour — are preliminary and will not be finalized until February 2025.
While Wednesday’s revision won’t change the existing monthly employment data for now, it serves as another critical gauge for the overall health and activity of the US labor market. Job growth has dropped off more than expected in recent months, making for an even more tenuous situation for the Federal Reserve and its weighing of interest rate cuts.
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