The math is simple. If President Donald Trump wins the same states he won four years ago, he'll be president of the United States for four more years.
But sweeping the swing states of Florida, Arizona, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio may be more difficult a second time around.
Polls show the potential of each one of those states voting Democrat in 2020.
As a result, Trump may need to pick up a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
While the Trump campaign is investing in states like Nevada and Colorado, Minnesota is emerging as the president's likeliest pick up opportunity. Republicans haven't won Minnesota since 1972, the party's longest losing streak.
"It’s a state we think we are going to do very well in," Hogan Gidley, a top campaign adviser to Trump, said.
"We only lost it by 1.4%, 44,000 votes," Gidley added.
Unlike four years ago, Trump is investing in the state. He has already made campaign stops there.
The Trump campaign spent around $30,000 in Minnesota in 2016. In 2020, they could spend well north of $10 million.
VIEW OF PARTY CHAIRS
Jennifer Carnahan, chair of the Minnesota Republican Party, believes rural Minnesota will offset progressive turnout in cities like Minneapolis.
"I actually think the support there for our president has grown over the past four years," Carnahan said.
Meanwhile Ken Martin, chair of the Minnesota Democratic Party, says it isn't just wishful thinking that Republicans can win in the state.
"They have the largest campaign on the ground in the state of Minnesota," Martin said, speaking about the Trump campaign.
But Martin says Team Biden is aggressively hiring staffers and is vowing to not overlook the state.
"The cavalry is coming," Martin added.