Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season still expected, NOAA says

NOAA updated hurricane forecast.png
Posted at 11:44 AM, Aug 04, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-08 08:18:21-04

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said an above-average Atlantic hurricane season is still expected.

NOAA forecasters issued a mid-season update on Thursday. Forecasters slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-average season from 65% in May to 60%.

NOOA said the likelihood of near-normal activity rose to 30% and there's still a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

Hurricane season started officially on June 1 and ends on November 30.


In May, NOAA predicted that 14-21 named storms would develop in the Atlantic basin. Of that, NOAA said six to 10 would be hurricanes, and three to six would be major hurricanes, which are Category 3 storms and above.

On Thursday, forecasters only slightly dropped those predictions. NOAA still expects 14-20 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

So far this season, there have been three named storms but no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA said the ranges are provided with a 70% confidence. Read more on the predictions and how they're made by clicking here.

Officials with The National Weather Service, FEMA and NOAA continued to stress the importance of preparing now.

“Communities and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to be an active hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Ensure that you are ready to take action if a hurricane threatens your area by developing an evacuation plan and gathering hurricane supplies now before a storm is bearing down on your community.”

“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we, therefore, cannot afford to let our guard down,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season—the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait. That’s why everyone should take proactive steps to get ready by downloading the FEMA app and visiting or for preparedness tips. And most importantly, make sure you understand your local risk and follow directions from your state and local officials.”