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POLL: Trump in dead heat with Clinton in Florida

Posted at 8:20 AM, May 10, 2016

A new poll finds the margin to winning the White House in November is razor thin in several swing states.

"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Pollsters asked likely voters in the three states what they thought of Trump, Clinton and Bernie Sanders and who they would vote for if the election were held today.

In Florida, Clinton leads Trump by the narrowest of margins, 43 to 42 percent. Sanders leads the presumptive GOP nominee 44 to 42 percent, also well within the poll's 3 percent margin of error.

Trump leads Clinton in Ohio by 4 points and only trails the former Secretary of State by 1 point in Pennsylvania.

"At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012," said Brown. "And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.

The only reason Trump is not doing better is because of his lack of support among women voters.

In Florida, Clinton is leading 48 to 35 percent among women. Trump is leading 49 to 36 percent among men.

"This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trumps," said Brown. "In Pennsylvania, Clinton's 19-point lead among women matches up to Trump's 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 among women but down 15 points with men."

Breaking down the data, Quinnipiac pollsters find in Florida White and older voters are more likely to go Republican while non-White and younger voters go Democratic. Surprisingly, independent voters are divided equally between Trump and Clinton 39 to 39 percent.

"Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say," notes Brown. "He also would do a better job handling terrorism. By wide margins voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards."

The poll also asked voters opinions on illegal immigration topics.

Florida voters overwhelming support requiring voters to show a photo ID before being allowed to cast a ballot. A majority of voters say illegal immigrations should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship but are split 48 to 48 percent whether the government should build a wall along the Mexican border.

"Republicans' weakness among minority voters is well known," said Brown. "But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton's historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men."

You can read the full poll results here: www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345