Hillsborough County could be the predictor for the state of Florida election results

Posted at 7:19 AM, Nov 08, 2016

Down to the wire. On election day, once again it will be a tight race for the state of Florida and the state's 29 electoral votes.

The latest polls show Hillary Clinton with a one point lead over Donald Trump 46 to 45.

If history is any indication, Hillsborough County could mean everything to the candidates. In 19 of the last 20 elections the winner of that county has not only gone on to win Florida, but also the election. The only exception came in 1992 when George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton.


The reason for this as explained by ABC Action News political analyst Dr. Susan MacManus is that Hillsborough has consistantly shown itself to be a great reflector of the demographics that represent Florida as whole.

“Hillsborough County reflects the state's racial and ethnic makeup it’s, age makeup, as well as it's three key geographies. It's all right here in Hillsborough that's why it's called the best predictor of how Florida's going to vote and in Florida the best predictor of how the nation is going to vote,” MacManus said recently on ABC Action News weekend edition.
Early voting in Hillsborough has favored the democrats as they are out-pacing republicans by more than 28,000 ballots. However, that doesn’t tell us who those votes are for. It tells us that there were that many more democrats voting early than republicans.