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POLL: Trump rated more honest; contest stays a dead heat

Posted: 7:07 AM, Nov 02, 2016
Updated: 2016-11-02 09:48:23-04
POLL: Presidential race in a dead heat
POLL: Presidential race in a dead heat

Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump for the first time this campaign in who’s seen as more honest and trustworthy, a sign of further possible fallout from renewed FBI scrutiny of Clinton-related emails. A steady six in 10 likely voters disapprove of how she’s responded to the issue.

Given Clinton’s advantage in other areas, the race between them is now a precise dead heat in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, 46-46 percent. A majority, 55 percent, continues to expect Clinton to win, though that’s down 5 points from its peak last week, before FBI Director James Comey announced the latest review of emails related to Clinton's use of a private server while she served as secretary of state.

Enthusiasm for both candidates remains weak -- 46 percent of Clinton’s supporters and 52 percent of Trump’s are very enthusiastic about their choice, compared with, for example, 64 percent for Barack Obama and 62 percent for Mitt Romney at this point in 2012.

 

 

That absence of enthusiasm reflects the historic unpopularity of both candidates, potentially impacting motivation to vote. That said, nearly one in four likely voters, 23 percent, say they’ve already voted. It was 17 percent at this point in 2012, so it looks to be on pace for a record.

Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted, 54-41 percent. Notably, this number can vary substantially -- or at least it did in 2012 -- as pre-Election Day voting accelerates.

 

 

Among other results is a gradual collapse in support for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, from a peak of 9 percent support in September to just 3 percent now. Jill Stein of the Green Party has 2 percent and has held steady.

RELATED | Trump leads Clinton by 1 point in new poll as enthusiasm declines

Honesty

The race is close because assessments of honesty and trustworthiness are far from voters’ only concerns. Earlier tracking results, for instance, found Clinton much more likely to be seen as qualified to serve as president, another key candidate attribute.

Trump’s lead in honesty and trustworthiness raises the question of whether Clinton has been damaged by Comey’s announcement last Friday that the FBI was investigating additional emails that passed through her private server. Vote preferences have not changed significantly pre- and post-Comey, suggesting the impact, if present, is a subtle one, potentially more apt to influence turnout than vote choices directly.

Notably, Trump has not gained significantly in being seen as more honest than Clinton. Rather her score has dropped by 7 points in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. The number who volunteer that they don’t see either as honest and trustworthy has risen from 8 to 12 percent, a small, but significant change.

Compared to early September results, Clinton has lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates -- two groups less firmly anchored by partisan or ideological preferences. That said, she’s also lost 10 points among Democrats on this measure.

Expectations

The shift in expectations also may be related to the Comey announcement, since 60 percent of likely voters expected Clinton to win immediately before news of his letter to Congress, while it’s slipped to 55 percent in the past four days. This includes a 5-point decline in expectations she’ll win “easily,” from 26 to 21 percent.

Again there’s essentially no change for Trump -- a non-significant +2 from 29 to 31 percent in likely voters' predictions. The rest, chiefly, have no opinion.

The shift in expectations is broadly based across partisan and ideological groups, essentially the same, for example, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents as it is among Republicans and GOP-leaners. Large majorities of each candidate’s supporters (particularly Clinton's) continue to think their candidate will win, but the number of her own supporters who think she’ll win easily is down 8 points, from 45 percent last week to 37 percent now.

To the extent that perceptions of a closer race drive turnout, the shift could be helpful to Clinton in the days ahead. Still, expectations of a Clinton win remain strong and unchanged among one group whose turnout has been a source of concern for Democrats, millennials (age 18 to 35).

Among other groups, expectations of a Clinton victory have declined more among college-educated likely voters, from 68 percent to 61 percent now, led by an 11-point drop among white men with a college degree, a battleground group. Expectations are steadier among whites without a college degree, white women with a degree, blacks and Hispanics.

Johnson

One dynamic related to the tightened Clinton-Trump race is a decline in support for Johnson (compared with steadier support, albeit minimal, for Stein). In early September, 11 percent of registered voters, and 9 percent of likely voters supported Johnson, vs. only 4 and 3 percent, respectively, now. Stein has held steady at 3 and 2 percent, respectively.

This appears to have aided Trump more than Clinton. In September, 11 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning likely voters supported Johnson; that’s at 4 percent now, down 7 points, as Trump has consolidated in this group. Leaned Democrats, by contrast, have shifted away from Johnson by just 3 points, from 5 to 2 percent.

Stein, for her part, has retained her support, 2 percent among leaned Democrats, 1 percent among leaned Republicans.

Groups

The latest results are consistent across population groups. Trump, who’s consolidated in the GOP base, is backed by 88 percent of Republicans, and 85 percent when GOP-leaning independents are included; Clinton, by 87 percent of Democrats and 85 percent when Democratic leaners are added in. Across the last six nights of tracking (for an adequate sample size), pure independents have backed Trump over Clinton by 55-23 percent.

A large gender gap continues, with Clinton +10 among women while Trump is +11 among men -- about twice the size of the customary gender gap in exit polls dating to 1976. A vast racial gap is evident, with Trump +15 points among whites, Clinton +48 points among nonwhites.

Turnout among racial groups, thus, is critical. Nonwhites account for 25 percent of likely voters in the latest results. That matches their share of likely voters in the final ABC/Post tracking poll in 2012, which accurately estimated the election’s outcome.

Lastly, an unusual finding historically -- albeit consistent this year -- are the very similar results among all registered voters (44-43 percent, Clinton-Trump) and likely voters -- 46-46 percent, as noted. Likely voters customarily are a more Republican-aligned group than registered voters overall. In this election, however, the effect of more education -- higher among likely voters, and a better group for Clinton -- changes the equation.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 28-31, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,182 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

Q7 and Q8 were asked Oct. 30-31, among 659 likely voters; they both have 4-point error margins.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

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