When they left town as 17-14 winners on Oct. 11, the
Cincinnati Bengals certainly had the attention of a stunned Baltimore Ravens
squad.
Should Cincinnati complete a home-and-home sweep of John Harbaugh's team at
Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday, Baltimore might have to turn its attention to
something other than winning the AFC North title.
A Week 9 win for the Bengals (5-2) would hand Marvin Lewis' club the all-
important head-to-head tie-breaker against one of its main division
competitors, not to mention a two-game lead over Baltimore (4-4) in the AFC
North. Cincinnati already holds the tie-breaker over the similarly 5-2 Steelers
thanks to a head-to-head win over Pittsburgh on Sept. 27, and will be
attempting to complete a sweep of the defending Super Bowl champs next Sunday
at Heinz Field.
Past their two-game gauntlet of Ravens and Steelers is a light stretch against
the Raiders (2-6), Browns (1-7), and Lions (1-7), a period in which it will be
difficult for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or anyone else to gain much ground on the
Bengals.
Not that Cincinnati needs a host of cupcakes in order to pad its record,
judging by the team's strength thus far in the season's first half. Just prior
to its Week 8 bye, the Bengals flexed their muscles with a 45-10 home beat-down
of the Chicago Bears, helping to wipe away the residue of a troubling loss to
Houston in the Queen City the week before.
The job of making the Bengals' three-game homestand a losing one will fall to
the Ravens, who can also pull even with Cincinnati (and potentially Pittsburgh,
which plays at 6-1 Denver on Monday Night) with a victory in Week 9.
Baltimore rides some momentum into its date with the Bengals, having handed the
Broncos their first loss in resounding 30-7 fashion last week. The victory
ended a frustrating three-game losing streak for the Ravens, one that included
narrow losses to the Bengals, Patriots (27-21), and Vikings (33-31).
A Ravens defense that had been criticized for its struggles, particularly in
the realm of pass defense, limited Denver's usually efficient offensive group
to just 200 yards on the day. Greg Mattison's defense limited Kyle Orton and
the Broncos passing game to just 152 yards on 23-of-37 passing, and held Denver
stars Brandon Marshall (4 receptions, 24 yards) and Knowshon Moreno (12 total
touches, 35 yards) firmly in check on the day.
Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Flacco kept up his brilliant sophomore season by
completing 20-of-25 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown without a turnover on
the day.
Rookie kickoff returner Lardarius Webb provided the most electrifying moment of
the game, setting the second-half tone by bringing back the opening kickoff of
the half for a 95-yard touchdown.
SERIES HISTORY
Baltimore leads the all-time series with Cincinnati, 15-12, but as mentioned,
was a 17-14 home loser when the teams met in Week 5. The Ravens swept the home-
and-home last year, earning a 17-10 home victory when the teams met in Week 1,
and coming away from Paul Brown Stadium with a 34-3 decision in Week 13. The
latter result snapped a three-game losing streak for Baltimore in the Queen
City. The Ravens haven't won back-to-back games in Cincinnati since 2000, when
they polished off a three-game winning streak there.
Lewis is 8-5 against the Ravens, the team for which he served as defensive
coordinator from 1996 through 2001. Baltimore's Harbaugh is 2-1 against both
Lewis and the Bengals as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
The Ravens enter Week 9 ranked seventh in the league in total offense (378.7
yards per game), though they put up their weakest offensive showing of the year
in the previous meeting against Cincinnati. Baltimore had just 257 yards and 12
first downs in that loss, and Flacco (1849 passing yards, 12 TD, 5 INT) looked
mostly unwilling to throw the ball downfield. Only four of the quarterback's 22
completions in that game went to wide receivers, and top WR Derrick Mason (30
receptions, 4 TD) went without a catch in the contest. If the Ravens wish to
avoid the sweep, wideouts Mason, Mark Clayton (23 receptions, 2 TD), and Kelley
Washington (24 receptions, 1 TD) must get involved, along with tight end Todd
Heap (27 receptions, 2 TD). Baltimore running back Ray Rice (525 rushing yards,
38 receptions, 5 TD) has had an electrifying second season, and was the Ravens'
offensive leader with 28 total touches for 108 yards and a touchdown against
the Broncos last week. A solid Baltimore offensive line has surrendered just 12
sacks on the year, and limited a good Denver pass rush to two last Sunday.
Although a rough outing against Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans back in Week
6 proved that it is possible to move the ball on the Cincinnati defense, that
472-yard offensive performance was more the exception than the rule for a
Bengals group that handled the Ravens attack and more recently coaxed the
Bears' Jay Cutler into a three-interception day. The ability of the team to
handle Rice will be paramount, with tackles Domata Peko (13 tackles) and Pat
Sims (18 tackles) trying to set the tone up front, and linebackers Dhani Jones
(46 tackles, 1 sack) and Keith Rivers (39 tackles) among those responsible for
making plays behind them. Jones had a team-high seven solo tackles against the
Bears last time out. The secondary that Flacco seemed so afraid to test in Week
5 features three former first-rounders, including quarterbacks Johnathan Joseph
(26 tackles, 3 INT) and Leon Hall (38 tackles, 3 INT) along with strong safety
Roy Williams (28 tackles). Joseph and Hall both had INTs of Flacco in the first
Ravens-Bengals meeting. Williams has missed three of the last four games due to
a forearm injury but is expected to play Sunday.
WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
In its previous meeting against the Ravens defense, Cincinnati did not look
like an offense that was displaying much fear. In addition to Cedric Benson
(720 rushing yards, 5 TD), who became the first opposing rusher since 2006 to
amass over 100 yards against the Ravens, Carson Palmer (1608 passing yards, 13
TD, 7 INT) lit the Baltimore defense up for 271 yards on 18-of-31 passing,
including a 73-yard bomb to Chris Henry (11 receptions, 2 TD) and a 20-yard
touchdown pass to Andre Caldwell (26 receptions, 2 TD) to provide the final
margin of victory. Henry and Chad Ochocinco (39 receptions, 5 TD) both had 90+
receiving yards in the victory. Last time out, in the rout of the Bears, Palmer
threw five touchdown passes, including two to Ochocinco and one each to Henry
and Laveranues Coles (16 receptions, 3 TD), while Benson established career-
highs for carries (37) and yards (189) against his former team. The Bengals
have moved up to 13th in the league in total offense (345.9 yards per game)
thanks largely to the work of an underrated line that has surrendered just 11
sacks on the year.
After injuring their stout reputation by allowing 100-yard rushing games to
both Benson and Adrian Peterson in recent weeks, the Ravens recovered by doing
a good job against Moreno and the Denver ground attack last Sunday. Still, a
Baltimore run defense that is allowing 87.6 rushing yards per game, fourth-best
in the NFL, could take a hit this week if massive defensive tackle Haloti Ngata
(19 tackles, 0.5 sacks) is unable to shake off a sprained ankle suffered last
week. If Ngata is out, Justin Bannan (18 tackles) would start alongside Kelly
Gregg (24 tackles), with linebacker Ray Lewis (60 tackles, 1 sack) the main
clean-up man behind them. Despite those question marks, the problem spot for
the Ravens remains in the secondary, where cornerbacks Fabian Washington (28
tackles) and especially Domonique Foxworth (15 tackles, 1 INT) have been shaky,
as has safety Dawan Landry (35 tackles, 2 INT). Pro Bowler Ed Reed (29 tackles,
2 INT), who had four tackles and recovered a Moreno fumble last week, has been
the most reliable player on the back end as usual. Pass rusher Terrell Suggs
(37 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the team's most feared threat off the edge, though
linebacker Jarret Johnson (24 tackles, 5 sacks) and end Trevor Pryce (12
tackles, 4 sacks) are 1-2 on the team in sacks. Baltimore is 19th in the league
against the pass (226.1 yards per game) as Week 8 commences.
FANTASY FOCUS
Rice's presence in both the rushing and passing games have made him a terrific
fantasy play, and since Willis McGahee has averaged just 4.3 touches and scored
one TD over the past four games, any reservations about using Rice should be
tempered. The Ravens' passing principles are a bit more problematic, especially
given how reluctant they were to put the ball in the air against Cincinnati
last time, but Flacco, Mason, and to a lesser extent Heap will probably
contribute something. The Ravens defense is not what it once was, but still
makes enough big plays to merit a fantasy start.
On the Cincinnati side, Benson's performance against the Ravens last time out
should take any reluctance you might have in using him away, and Palmer and
Ochocinco have both been reasonably reliable as well. Coles has touchdown
catches in each of his last two games, but with only six grabs overall in those
outings, he's risky at best. The Bengals defense is worth a look, as is kicker
Shayne Graham.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
For the second straight week, the Ravens have to know how damaging a loss would
be to their 2009 prospects. Thus, for a second straight week, you can expect an
intensely focused effort from Harbaugh's crew. The Bengals are a good football
team and have been a terrific story this year, but they still have en ever-so-
slight talent disadvantage when compared with the Ravens, and the fact that
Cincinnati would still be 5-3 and very much in control of its own destiny with
a loss is going to ratchet down the desperation effect just a bit for Lewis'
club. The Bengals will play well enough to keep this one close deep into the
fourth quarter, but will make one fewer big play than Baltimore when it
matters.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 23, Bengals 17
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