OUTLOOK: Every season in the West Coast Conference of late, resembles the one
before it, as Gonzaga wins the conference crown going away and everyone else
falls in line behind. The 2008-09 season was no different, as the Bulldogs won
their ninth straight regular season crown, made it to their 11th consecutive
NCAA Tournament (Sweet Sixteen) and amassed 28 victories overall.
Saint Mary's duplicated Gonzaga's win total (28), but was relegated to the NIT
for its efforts, perhaps a slight by the selection committee towards the WCC.
No other team eclipsed the 20-win plateau last year, although Portland came
very close (19 wins) as the Pilots were the only other squad to secure a
winning record. Both San Diego (16-16) and Santa Clara (16-17) had
opportunities to join the group, but fell short. Bringing up the rear were San
Francisco (11-19), Pepperdine (9-23) and finally Loyola Marymount (3-28).
The 2009-10 campaign figures to be more of the same, with no team really
stepping up to be a viable threat to end Gonzaga's reign atop the conference.
Portland has the best opportunity to put a scare in the Zags, as Saint Mary's
is in a bit of a rebuilding season. San Diego should be improved this season
and could push towards a 20-win campaign closing out the top tier teams in the
league.
A young Pepperdine squad in 2008-09, should see positive returns this season,
as the Waves inch closer to a winning season. Losing the WCC Player of the
Year won't be easy for Santa Clara t overcome as the team should be hovering
around the .500 mark again. The WCC cellar is reserved for San Francisco and
Loyola Marymount. The Dons are severely lacking in the backcourt and the
Lions,
who were extremely young last season, are still in a transition mode and will
struggle once again.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Gonzaga
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Gonzaga, 2. Portland, 3. Saint Mary's, 4. San
Diego, 5. Pepperdine, 6. Santa Clara, 7. San Francisco, 8. Loyola Marymount
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
GONZAGA: The Bulldogs won 28 game a year ago, but Mark Few's team will have a
new look in 2009-10, as he must replace five players that are now gone,
including three starters. Making up for the losses of players like Austin
Daye, Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt won't be easy. Throw Micah Downs into the
mass exodus and on the surface, it looks like a rebuilding year. However,
there are still playmakers on the roster, headlined by guards Matt Bouldin
(13.6 ppg) and Steven Gray (9.1 ppg). Up front, where Gonzaga was hit hardest,
Few hopes that seven-footer Robert Sacre will finally blossom into a dominant
force. A huge recruiting class brings little in terms of immediate help in the
frontcourt, although redshirt sophomore forward Bol Kong has some upside. It
will be up to the play of the backcourt to carry the team, especially early
on. That's where Bouldin and Gray will come in. Bouldin is both a scorer and
deft distributor who can play either guard position, Gray is a long-range
threat. Newcomers like Kelly Olynyk (6-11), Mangisto Arop (6-6) and Elias
Harris (6-7) will need to fit into the mix as well, but the offense will
funnel through the veteran backcourt tandem. Overall, the Zags are not as
formidable as in year's past, but should still be able to win the regular-
season WCC title.
PORTLAND: The Pilots may have the best shot at dethroning the Bulldogs this
year, as fourth-year coach Eric Reveno, last year's WCC Coach of the Year,
continues to lift his team to new heights. Last season Portland won 19 games
and made a postseason appearance a huge turnaround for the program. Perhaps
the most experienced squad in the conference, Portland returns all five
starters and its top 10 scorers, including All-WCC members Nik Raivio (16.0
ppg, 6.5 rpg) and T.J. Campbell (11.1 ppg, 4.7 apg). Campbell is the
conference's top sharpshooter, draining 53.1 percent from long range last
year. Junior Jared Stohl (11.2 ppg) can also drain it from long range,
converting over 45 percent of his opportunities. The frontcourt is just as
stacked with players like Robin Smeulders, Kramer Knutson, Ethan Niedermeyer
and Luke Sikma. While the Pilots certainly have what looks like a team that
can contend for the conference title, talking about beating Gonzaga and
actually doing it, are two entirely different things.
SAINT MARY'S: Randy Bennett has done a remarkable job at Saint Mary's and it
all paid off with a 28-win season a year ago. Unfortunately for the Gaels, all
those victories didn't amount to much come tournament time, as they were
snubbed by the selection committee. The team will need to play with a chip on
its shoulder this year, as key losses (guard Patrick Mills and forward Diamon
Simpson) will make it awfully hard to duplicate last season. Center Omar
Samhan returns though, a First-Team All-WCC selection who averaged 14.1 points
and 9.4 rebounds per game last season. He won't be able to assuage the losses
alone however, and that is where newcomers like Tim Williams and Trey Anderson
come in. All three redshirted in 2009-10 and bring a huge upside into the
season. It will be a down season for the Gaels, but then again, if 28 wins
doesn't get you into the tournament, what does? Staying competitive won't be a
problem for Bennett's squad, but it may not be enough to remain among the
conference elite.
SAN DIEGO: The Toreros won 16 games last season and that was the good news.
The bad news is that they also lost 16 games and managed a mere six wins in-
conference. To make matters worse this season, the team must try to replace
steady performer Gyno Pomare and Rob Jones won't make things easier. Still, it
is not as bad as it sounds for Bill Grier's squad, as playmaker Brandon
Johnson returns to the fold healthy. The explosive Johnson suffered an
Achilles' injury that forced him to the sidelines last year, but he did get an
extra year of eligibility and will be the centerpiece once again for Bill
Grier's squad, after averaging almost 17 points per game two years ago. Other
proven commodities include guards De'Jon Jackson (8.9 ppg) and Matt Dorr (6.5
ppg). The Toreros aren't the biggest team around and that could be a concern
if the defense isn't top-notch the entire way down the floor.
PEPPERDINE: There is plenty returning for the Waves this year, including all
five starters. The one problem however, is that Pepperdine only won nine games
a year ago with its current roster. Getting the team to continue to strive
forward is the task at hand for Tom Asbury. The leaders on this team include
guard Keion Bell (12.9 ppg) and forward Mychel Thompson (9.6 ppg). Other key
contributors include forward Taylor Darby (6.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Lorne
Jackson. The Waves know how to play tight defense, they just lack scoring
punch. A streak of four straight losing seasons may continue this year, unless
everything goes right in Malibu.
SANTA CLARA: It is a rebuilding year for Kerry Keating and the Broncos, as
there is way too many losses to even consider moving up the conference ladder.
The biggest loss is all-conference center John Bryant (WCC Player of the Year)
and that void is cavernous down low for the Broncos. This team is in
transition and with it comes a new leader, this one in the backcourt in the
form of sophomore Kevin Foster (14.9 ppg), who was an All-WCC Freshman team
member. Fellow sophomore Marc Trasolini (6.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) also joined Foster
on the All-Freshman squad. A solid recruiting class consists of players like
Chris Cunningham (6-8 forward), Ray Cowels (6-4 swingman) and Robert Smith
(6-0 guard) and all may contribute in due time. While there may not be any
vertical movement upward for Santa Clara this year, there is enough in place
to match last year's 16 wins and hover around the .500 mark.
SAN FRANCISCO: Rex Walters had an inauspicious debut with the Dons, as San
Fran managed a mere 11 victories, despite having last year's scoring leader,
Dior Lowhorn lighting it up for 20+ points a night. The good news is that
Lowhorn returns, as does Blake Wallace (8.5 ppg). The hope is that a
recruiting class heavy in frontcourt performers, can make an immediate impact.
Freshmen Perris Blackwell, Tomas Bruha and Nikola Stojiljkovic will be force-
fed minutes and Walters will hope for the best. The team finally gets talented
Rashad Green in uniform, after transferring in from Manhattan, where he netted
almost eight points per game as a freshman. Still, there is a lot being asked
of the young players on the roster and Lowhorn simply can't do it alone. If
everything goes right for the Dons, adding a couple of more wins to last
year's total is reachable. A winning season is a completely different story.
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT: The Lions played more like lambs in 2008-09 and the result
was an ugly three-win campaign, with a 2-12 league mark. The team never really
responded to the loss of coach Billy Bayno (health) and Max Good couldn't
ignite a fire over the second half of the season. Now the team is fully in
Good's hands, but that may not result in significantly more wins. LMU has a
decent base, consisting of veteran guards Vernon Teel (14.6 ppg) and Jarred
DuBois (13.5 ppg). The team also will get the services of Oregon transfer Drew
Viney and Seton Hall transfer Larry Davis. That isn't a bad place to start,
but the team's address in the conference basement probably won't change for
another season.
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