TAMPA, FL -- The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season should be an "average year", so says the Tropical Prediction Team at Colorado State University. William Gray and his team have predicted 12 Tropical Storms will form this year. Six of these should become hurricanes and two will become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one with winds of more than 111 mph.
This is lower than the original prediction of 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes issued back in December. Any given year, the average number of tropical storms that form in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico is close to 11.
Although, as far as I'm concerned, these forecasts are tremendously overrated. Just think back to 1992. It was a VERY slow hurricane season. In fact, the first storm didn't even develop until mid August. Do you remember that storm? I'm sure you do. It was Hurricane Andrew.
Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida as a Category 5 monster. So even though it was a "slow" year, by hurricane standards, residents of Homestead will always remember it as one of the worst ever.
Bottom line, it doesn't matter how many hurricanes form. It matters where they strike. So even if tropical development is down, that doesn't diminish the risk. It only takes one. My point? Make sure you and your family are ready with your hurricane plans and kits in case this is the year.
It's been 88 years since the Bay area has seen a direct strike from a Major Hurricane. We are LONG overdue. That is NOT intended to hype the situation or scare anyone. It's just the reality we face living on the Gulf of Mexico.
There may very well be a good reason we've been so lucky, for so long. But at some point, our luck will run out. It's up to you to make sure you and your family are ready for that storm when it comes. Not "if", it's most certainly "when". We'll be there with you all the way when it does. Count on it.
