TAMPA, FL -- Before we get into this Sunday's game with New Orleans, which isn't too complicated to understand, let's go back one week. After the Miami loss, how did you feel?
I was actually mad. Mad as heck at the defense. But it was a different anger. They should have beaten Miami, but then again, a few weeks earlier, we were wondering if the Bucs would ever win a game.
It's fun again to watch them. It's actually fun again to cover them. All this negativity was driving me crazy, but we had to call it like we saw it.
Let's take a positive spin on this whole season right now. The Bucs are 1-1 under Josh Freeman. Also keep this mental note in your mind - the offense is 2-0 in getting the lead back late in the game.
Freeman is doing this with what WR's and no running game to speak of. Now this week is the perfect week for Caddy and Derrick Ward to turn it up a notch. The Saints do not have a good run defense.
Even more encouraging for the Bucs, the Saints passing game seems to be falling off a bit. Drew Brees' quarterback rating last week came back to earth at around 90.
I say that with tongue in cheek. It was way up there in continued blowouts, but the Rams showed the Bucs New Orleans can be vulnerable. Will the Bucs defense respond accordingly?
After getting toasted last week on four simple plays that got Miami in winning field goal range, they darn sure should be primed for a reversal of fortune. Stylez G. White is back. The fun loving, always smiling White who is about the only DE producing pressure on a QB. God knows they need plenty of that this week.
Finally, Head Coach Raheem Morris said this week what we blogged after week three - they don't have the personnel on defense to run this defense. That my friends, are wake-up call words. Players are simply playing for jobs now.
So what will happen on Sunday? I'll tell you what needs to happen on Sunday. Whoever wins this game may need the early lead. Rain is in the forecast the tune of 50%, with the front coming through around halftime at this point.
Having the lead will be a plus. It may get soggy down there in the trenches. Ball control, ball control, ball control. Yards could be tough to come by.
The weather may also keep the Bucs in this football game. New Orleans is favored by 11 1/2 points. The line opened at 12 1/2.
Without the weather problems that should develop sometime during the game, I would take the Saints. But this week, I'm going to take the Bucs for the third week in a row, plus the points.
I'd say within a couple of weeks, the boys in Vegas will figure it out that these guys are not perennial double-digit dogs.
Just a quick note - by the big spreads week after week, parity is far from the truth right now in the NFL.
Here's to the rain coming on Sunday. Here's to Drew Brees hopefully having a mediocre game. And here's to hopefully going 7 and 3 against the spread.
TK's Bucs Pick: Bucs +11 1/2
TK vs. Spread 6-3
